I Can See OSU Upsetting Cal

This is a big weekend for the Oregon State football team. They play another tough game on the road and this time it is the #2 ranked team in the country, the Cal Bears. Everyone is picking the Bears to beat the Beavers and for good reason. Cal forces the most turnovers in the college football and OSU gives up the most. OSU has the worst award winning punter in the history of college football and Deshawn Jackson of Cal is the best return guy in the country. All that and Cal has had two weeks to prepare for this game. Ouch. So why do I see a different outcome?

It has nothing to do with typical predictions. I don't think Cal is overrated. Up until this part of the season OSU has not played better the Cal. It has nothing to do with Cal being cocky cause they are not. I just think that OSU will play a better game then they have in their previous 6 games this year.

OSU has tremendous potential to play well as a football team, but if most teams don't show it by this point in the year then don't expect it to show up for the rest of the season. Why do I think OSU's potential will show up this week? Because this team has character. This isn't your egomaniac UW or UO team where the kids think they are bigger then the program. This is a senior led team which has overcome bigger obstacles then winning on the road in Berkeley (where they haven't lost since 1997).

OSU will show their leadership and character and that should help with their Achilles heal. Turnovers. Most of them are the fault of their young QB's but what about UCLA? My point being that this part of the game is still a team effort for OSU to succeed. And if this team has any real character then I can see them holding on to the ball against Cal no matter what type of added pressure we see from the Bears. This is all on the players at OSU to get better at and I see this team taking the right step this week.

The special teams were supposed to be so good this year. Everywhere from punting to returning. Then the special teams coach leaves to take a better job in the off season. As soon as the team starts fall practice the starting punter quits and your back up is ineligible. Your all-American returner is out for the season and your best overall special teams guy fumbles three kickoffs in a row against UCLA. Can it get any worse? Yes, you still can't punt and you're kicking too Deshawn Jackson this week. This is the wild card and really makes me nervous. Let's just get past this part, in fact, lets never speak of it again.

How good is OSU's offensive line? Everything we heard during the preseason was how good this group was. But they haven't shown it and the Jeremy Perry injury against Utah was a lot bigger then anyone would predict. But this is one of the proudest groups in the nation and two years ago in Berkeley this group turned it around after two previous years of horrible blocking. Its another character issue and one I think will turn around. Once this unit starts opening holes for Yvenson Bernard, look out. The only worry is our QB's being so ineffective they can't keep the defense honest.

Say what you want about the OSU quarterbacks, but they will get better. This is more of a youth issue then a character issue. But if Canfield or Moevao can step it up and make that pass that stretches the defense, then this will become a tremendous building block for the QB of the future. I personally hope one of them will take on this challenge and change their destiny forever.

Some Cal fans today were saying that the Bears would run for 150 yards and pass for 400. That's 550 yards of total offense against the country's #2 unit. This defense holds opponents to 44 yards rushing per game. This is OSU's biggest advantage over Cal. The Bears have not faced an defense with this much team speed and it may be the best pass rush they'll see all year. Even when OSU got smoked in Cinci, you could see that the defense was really good. If OSU can take care of the ball, this unit will keep the Bears off the field.

But what about playing on the road in Berkeley? ESPN rated Memorial Stadium as the 10th toughest place to play in the nation. So when was the last time that ESPN was in Berkeley? This isn't so much a road game for OSU as not a home game. Usually 5K+ orange wearing fans make the trip to the Bay Area for this game and every time I've been their the OSU fans were louder then the Cal fans for the majority of the game. Sure, 60K Cal fans cheering at big plays and the crucial 3rd down will give the home team a boost, but OSU fans will get fired up throughout the game. I've seen it at the last two OSU games as Strawberry Canyon and the visiting team hasn't been rattled by the home crowds enthusiasm. Now, this is not an advantage for OSU, its just not going to hurt them too much.

I can see Oregon State winning this game. I don't think Cal is overlooking the Beavs but I know the fans are. So I'm putting myself out there. If OSU wins, I'm the hero. But if they lose, I eat crow. But really, if OSU loses bad, then don't make those Holiday bowl plans. Unfortunately that's a prediction that will come true.

OSU 31, Cal 19

-Beavers415